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2026 Outlook: Finding Opportunity Beyond The Obvious

Independent thinking, active conviction, and the opportunities we see across global markets in 2026.

As we look to 2026, markets are shifting rather than settling. Across regions, one common thread stands out: we are investing through a transition. Inflation is lower but not vanquished, policy is easier but not loose, and the AI and capex cycle is reshaping winners and losers at a speed markets have rarely seen before. In this environment, we believe investors will be rewarded less for predicting the macro path, and more for being selective about which businesses – and which parts of the capital structure – they own.

 

That is where our identity matters. We are true active managers. We are independent thinkers. And we build high-conviction, concentrated portfolios, rather than trying to mirror benchmarks that are increasingly dominated by a narrow group of mega-cap names. Our desks do not share one homogenous investment view, but they do share a common philosophy: focus on quality and resilience, keep valuation discipline, and use active risk management – from carry and duration to convexity – to navigate uncertainty.

 

In equities, our conviction continues to sit away from the most crowded areas of the market. Both in Europe and Switzerland, selectivity and valuation discipline are creating opportunities where fundamentals are improving but investor attention remains elsewhere. For us, small- and mid-cap companies with pricing power, innovation capacity and strong balance sheets remain one of the clearest ways to access genuine growth without paying mega-cap multiples.

In fixed income, we expect income to do more of the heavy lifting in 2026. Yields remain attractive even after spread compression, and this environment rewards careful credit selection, especially in parts of the market where private credit or cyclical pressures could create dispersion. Our focus is on letting coupon carry work, while keeping the quality bias that has served us well late in the cycle.

Convertible bonds sit naturally across these themes. The resurgence in issuance and renewed breadth have restored the asset class’s usefulness as a convex way to express views on innovation and smaller caps. With more balanced structures and a healthier opportunity set, convertibles allow us to capture asymmetry in a market where the gap between winners and losers is likely to remain wide.

What ties these views together is not a top-down forecast, but a way of investing. We spend our time understanding real businesses, talking to management teams, stress-testing balance sheets and business models, and being disciplined about what we own – and what we are happy to leave to others. We embrace tracking error because we believe conviction is the only way to generate genuinely differentiated returns over time.

The following insights go deeper into each of these themes. Taken together, they reflect how our portfolio managers are positioning today: selectively pro-risk, focused on quality and valuation, and ready to use active, concentrated portfolios to turn a year of transition into a year of opportunity.

2026 Outlook

MACRO

 

Understanding the forces driving a fragmented yet opportunity-rich macro environment in 2026.

 

2026 Outlook

EUROPEAN EQUITIES

 

Finding value where others aren’t looking: a bottom-up perspective on Europe’s small- and mid-caps. 

 

2026 Outlook

SWISS EQUITIES

 

A resilient market entering 2026 with quality, innovation and SMID dispersion at its core.

 

2026 Outlook

CONVERTIBLE BONDS

 

After two years of recovery, the convertibles market enters 2026 with renewed breadth, better structures and compelling convexity.

 

2026 Outlook

HIGH YIELD BONDS

 

Tight spreads, resilient yields and rising dispersion set the tone for a year where income does the heavy lifting.

 

Asset management

Andrew LAKE

Head of Fixed Income

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This publication is for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. It is not suitable for readers who have no prior knowledge of financial markets. The views and opinions expressed are those of the named author(s) and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Mirabaud communications. 

It does not constitute an offer and is not intended to provide investment advice or investment recommendations. Any sectors, asset classes, securities, regions or countries shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. This publication is not intended for and cannot be shared with any person who is a citizen or resident of any jurisdiction where the publication, distribution or use of the information contained herein would be subject to any restrictions. 

Past performance does not predict future returns. All investment involves risks, including loss of the money invested. Diversification does not necessarily ensure a profit or protect against losses in declining markets. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of investments will meet given investment objectives or generate a given level of income. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any cross-border investments to rise or fall. In general, investments in stocks and bonds are subject to risks such as country/regional risk, issuer, volatility and currency risk, which are not necessarily addressed herein. Do not base any investment decision on this publication alone.

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