Points de vue & Analyse

David Kneale takes stock of the UK equity market, shining a spotlight on the valuation disconnect as inflation drivers turn negative, interest rate expectations decline and attention shifts to earnings forecasts.

A market lag in repricing discount bonds presents an opportunity.

We ask David Kneale, Head of UK Equities at Mirabaud Asset Management, what the event means for investors, how companies are responding to climate change pressures and how much real progress has been made in the race to zero.

Brazil has outperformed other emerging markets year to date. This positive momentum looks set to continue thanks to the peak in rates, attractive valuations and a recovery in earnings.

In falling markets, companies that can control prices, protect their margins and are led by dynamic management teams have the greatest chance of meeting their growth potential.

With seven major macro challenges rocking the asset class, emerging market (EM) debt has suffered heavy outflows this year. What might happen next depends on your policy view; for investment opportunities, look to the individual, not the aggregate.

Equity sensitivity hit the sweet spot in September, enhancing convertibles’ asymmetric risk/reward profile despite market turbulence.

I have tried to time the news and wait to write my next update, but as there is something of significance happening almost every day, it is becoming the “update that is never going to happen”.

How anti-trust legislation is impacting corporate giants and how an integrated ESG approach can support more accurate equity valuations.

The hope of a central bank pivot has been crushed by the most recent FED signalling that the interest rate hiking cycle will last for a prolonged period of time. This also put a future goldilocks scenario of receding inflation, resistant economic growth and peaking interest rates further away.

Not much good comes out of war, and for market participants it is another 2022 headwind to deal with. War is inflationary. We have seen the effects of the Ukraine/Russia conflict since it began in late February.

July felt like a breath of fresh air for financial investors, but the months ahead look tricky as ever. Earnings season is well underway and it is confirming our assessment that, in general, sales growth is keeping up with expectation, and even, at times, surprising on the upside.

From recent market moves it would seem that the market has downgraded inflation from Big Bad Wolf, to Little Red Riding Hood. It has been an amazing few days post the 75bps move by the Federal Reserve last week. One comment from Fed Chair Jerome Powell – and we will come onto that in a second – and financial conditions have eased, all markets have rallied in tandem and have begun to price in a slowdown in both growth and inflation followed by an interest rate cut in short order. In keeping with the fairy tale theme, this would be the Goldilocks scenario…We have the Fed pivot, I hear you cry!

Mirabaud Portfolio Manager – Swiss Equities, Thomas Jäger, discusses the current positioning of our Swiss small and mid-cap equity portfolios given this year’s sharp correction which has left valuations looking far more attractive particularly for growth companies. We will continue to provide regular views and insights from our portfolio managers over the coming weeks.

China’s economic growth in 2022 has been impacted by the global supply chain, impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as domestic COVID lockdowns, most notably in Shanghai. However, it continues to face far less inflationary pressure compared to the west and is the only major economy currently easing policy, both monetary and fiscal.

Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) number was unexpectedly strong and caused markets to fall dramatically as inflation (and stagflation) fears moved once again to the front of investors’ minds. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) has finally joined the hawkish club, which re-priced European bonds dramatically this week. Subsequent pronouncements of a 25bps hike in July seem to put the ECB behind the curve and Bunds have sold off in response.

As more digital services are developed and offered, and as the platform’s users become more tied in, this creates a virtuous circle, creating significant opportunities for platform companies to grow. They can transform entire industries and scale vertically and horizontally by improving existing services or entering new service areas. More crucially, in the last couple of years, platform companies have helped reshape the global economy and changed how we collectively work and live.

Time for my latest missive, and yes you guessed it, more debate around inflation, interest rates and recession. Treasuries have rallied, with risk selling off over the last week or so, but at least for Fixed Income, we seem to be stuck in a bit of a range as we wait for more data on growth and inflation. It looks like the ECB is now going to raise rates, and we are still expecting 2x50bps from the Federal Reserve over the next 2 meetings.

Traditionally, when there is a focus on increasing inflation and rising rates, these developments are often followed by more robust nominal economic growth. This has generally been supportive for small-cap companies. However, there are more fundamental reasons that make small and-mid cap equities an attractive asset class for investors seeking to maximise their risk and return profile from their European equity allocations.

The central concept of transformation in Global Emerging Markets is providing positive tailwinds for companies in a range of sectors. Our Global Emerging Markets Equities explores some of these transformational themes in more detail.