Ansichten und Analysen

I have tried to time the news and wait to write my next update, but as there is something of significance happening almost every day, it is becoming the “update that is never going to happen”.

How anti-trust legislation is impacting corporate giants and how an integrated ESG approach can support more accurate equity valuations.

The hope of a central bank pivot has been crushed by the most recent FED signalling that the interest rate hiking cycle will last for a prolonged period of time. This also put a future goldilocks scenario of receding inflation, resistant economic growth and peaking interest rates further away.

Not much good comes out of war, and for market participants it is another 2022 headwind to deal with. War is inflationary. We have seen the effects of the Ukraine/Russia conflict since it began in late February.

July felt like a breath of fresh air for financial investors, but the months ahead look tricky as ever. Earnings season is well underway and it is confirming our assessment that, in general, sales growth is keeping up with expectation, and even, at times, surprising on the upside.

From recent market moves it would seem that the market has downgraded inflation from Big Bad Wolf, to Little Red Riding Hood. It has been an amazing few days post the 75bps move by the Federal Reserve last week. One comment from Fed Chair Jerome Powell – and we will come onto that in a second – and financial conditions have eased, all markets have rallied in tandem and have begun to price in a slowdown in both growth and inflation followed by an interest rate cut in short order. In keeping with the fairy tale theme, this would be the Goldilocks scenario…We have the Fed pivot, I hear you cry!

Mirabaud Portfolio Manager – Swiss Equities, Thomas Jäger, discusses the current positioning of our Swiss small and mid-cap equity portfolios given this year’s sharp correction which has left valuations looking far more attractive particularly for growth companies. We will continue to provide regular views and insights from our portfolio managers over the coming weeks.

China’s economic growth in 2022 has been impacted by the global supply chain, impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as domestic COVID lockdowns, most notably in Shanghai. However, it continues to face far less inflationary pressure compared to the west and is the only major economy currently easing policy, both monetary and fiscal.

Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) number was unexpectedly strong and caused markets to fall dramatically as inflation (and stagflation) fears moved once again to the front of investors’ minds. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) has finally joined the hawkish club, which re-priced European bonds dramatically this week. Subsequent pronouncements of a 25bps hike in July seem to put the ECB behind the curve and Bunds have sold off in response.

As more digital services are developed and offered, and as the platform’s users become more tied in, this creates a virtuous circle, creating significant opportunities for platform companies to grow. They can transform entire industries and scale vertically and horizontally by improving existing services or entering new service areas. More crucially, in the last couple of years, platform companies have helped reshape the global economy and changed how we collectively work and live.

Time for my latest missive, and yes you guessed it, more debate around inflation, interest rates and recession. Treasuries have rallied, with risk selling off over the last week or so, but at least for Fixed Income, we seem to be stuck in a bit of a range as we wait for more data on growth and inflation. It looks like the ECB is now going to raise rates, and we are still expecting 2x50bps from the Federal Reserve over the next 2 meetings.

Traditionally, when there is a focus on increasing inflation and rising rates, these developments are often followed by more robust nominal economic growth. This has generally been supportive for small-cap companies. However, there are more fundamental reasons that make small and-mid cap equities an attractive asset class for investors seeking to maximise their risk and return profile from their European equity allocations.

The central concept of transformation in Global Emerging Markets is providing positive tailwinds for companies in a range of sectors. Our Global Emerging Markets Equities explores some of these transformational themes in more detail.

In the US, the number of people aged 26-41 has exceeded 72 million, surpassing ‘baby boomers’ as the largest cohort of the population. Millennials will account for 75% of the global workforce by 2025 and their combined income will hit $8.3 trillion by 2025

On a recent trip into London, shops continue to be busy and a visit to the Nike store on Oxford Street was a nightmare, given it was so full the staff couldn’t cope. This seems to fly in the face of the dire warnings of a consumer having to decide between food and heat.

We have reclassified our “Renewables” theme to “Decarbonisation”. Renewables are a key piece of the puzzle in the transition to carbon neutrality, but alongside this there are other key areas of the transition, which will represent a significant tailwind for those companies exposed to them.

Today, we’ll be focused predominantly on inflation and the central banks’ reaction function. First, let’s not forget that the COVID response resulted in huge debt burdens for most countries. This will be an important part of the discussion by central banks given the consequences for balance sheet financing of a too aggressive approach to fighting inflation. 

With new waves of regulation coming through and stakeholder pressure building around climate change, temperature alignment and long-term business strategies to address these issues remain leading priorities for investors. The COP26 summit reaffirmed how much reducing greenhouse gas emissions is pivotal to keep temperature increases below 2°C.

We entered 2022 expecting some headwinds around inflation, a few interest rate rises in the US, and slowly easing supply chain blockages. And COVID would be a distant memory….or at least endemic. I often sit here as an apologist for Fixed Income (it is my job after all!) given the low and/or negative yields on offer, but despite the headwinds of inflation and slowing economic activity, I believe we are beginning to see the resurgence of the next Fixed Income mini cycle. Whether it is duration or credit is too early to tell at this point.

Mirabaud Asset Management is proud to join the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative, committing to support the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner. As signatories to the initiative, we also commit to set interim targets consistent with a fair share of the 50% global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.